Postsecondary Education Continues to Open Pathways to Good Jobs

Authors: Jeff Strohl, Artem Gulish, and Catherine Morris

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce

As the economy undergoes significant transformations, the relationship between education and employment is being reevaluated, leading many to consider how they can acquire the skills and knowledge to thrive in a rapidly changing job market.

A new report from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) examines the expanding job market by forecasting the number of good jobs in 2031 across 22 occupational groups and three educational pathways (bachelor’s degree, middle-skills, and high school). CEW defines a good job as one that pays a minimum of $43,000 and a median of $74,000 to workers ages 25-44 and a minimum of $55,000 and a median of $91,000 to workers ages 45-64.

Highlights from the report include:

The 2031 labor market: Those seeking jobs in 2031 will require more education and training than they do in our current economy. By 2031, an estimated 72 percent of jobs will require postsecondary education, compared with 66 percent of jobs today. Good jobs are expected to grow by 21 percent from 2021 to 2031, with a net gain of 15.6 million jobs for those with a bachelor’s degree while jobs on the high school pathway will decline by 600,000. This continues a trend of more high-paying occupations for those with a bachelor’s degree and narrowing opportunities for those with only a high school or middle-skills education.

The occupations with the largest number of good jobs in 2031: Management, business and financial operations, education and training, and healthcare professional occupations will see the largest increases in good jobs for those on the bachelor’s degree pathway. These jobs include education administrators, chief executives and legislators, architectural and engineering managers, financial analysts, accountants, librarians, pharmacists, and more.

• Overall, managerial and professional office occupations will add the largest number of good jobs (6.2 million) through 2031. However, 84 percent of them will only be available to those with at least a bachelor’s degree.
• For workers with a high school diploma, blue-collar occupations such as transportation and material moving, production, and construction and extraction will make up 54 percent of all the available good jobs.
• Construction and extraction and healthcare professional and technical occupations offer the most promising career potential for those on the middle-skills pathway. The report considers only one occupation promising for those on the high school pathway: installation, maintenance, and repair.

The economy of 2031 will see a reliance on workers with advanced skills and the ability to move organizations forward in a society increasingly dependent on technology and AI. This increased reliance on workers upskilling is reflected both across and within occupations. Occupational groups that have high concentrations of workers with bachelor’s and graduate degrees—such as managerial and professional office occupations—are the same categories that will experience some of the largest growth in good jobs through 2031.

To read the full report from CEW, click here. To read the executive summary, click here.

—Austin Freeman