Mind the Gap: How Middle-Skills Providers Can Meet Local Labor Market Needs

Title: The Great Misalignment: Addressing the Mismatch between the Supply of Certificates and Associate’s Degrees and the Future Demand for Workers in 565 US Labor Markets

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce

Authors: Jeff Strohl, Zachary Mabel, and Kathryn Peltier Campbell

The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce has analyzed how well middle-skills providers match their credential offerings with local workforce demands. Middle-skills jobs are defined as roles that require more education than a high school diploma but less than a bachelor’s degree.

According to the report, there are approximately 4,800 middle-skills education providers unevenly distributed across 565 local labor markets as of the 2020–21 academic year. These institutions offers credentials such as postsecondary sub-baccalaureate certificates and associate’s degrees.

Key findings include:

• To fully align the production of middle-skills credentials with projected labor demands, at least 50 percent of these credentials in half of the labor markets analyzed would need to be granted in different fields of study.
• Over a quarter of all middle-skills credentials are awarded in programs that lack a direct occupational correlation, such as liberal arts, general studies, and humanities. These credentials may be pursued for reasons beyond immediate workforce preparation, including transitioning to four-year institutions.
• Urban areas exhibit stronger alignment between credentials and job opportunities compared to rural areas, due to a higher density of providers capable of offering a diverse range of middle-skills credentials. Very rural labor markets average only two providers, whereas very urban markets average 26 providers.
• The alignment between credentials and job availability is strongest when middle-skills education and training are provided by a varied set of institutions that primarily offer certificates, associate degrees, or bachelor’s degrees.
• Geographic factors significantly influence both racial/ethnic disparities in access to middle-skills providers and the alignment between credentials and jobs. American Indian/Alaska Native adults are 3 to 18 times more likely than adults from other racial/ethnic groups to reside in areas lacking local middle-skills providers.
• Conversely, nearly 75 percent of Black/African American adults live in areas with strong credentials-to-jobs alignment, the highest rate among all racial/ethnic groups. Additionally, Hispanic/Latino adults are 1.3 to 1.6 times more likely than adults from other racial/ethnic groups to live in areas with poor alignment.

The report identifies two potential factors for stronger alignment in labor markets with more providers: direct competition and complementarity. Recommendations include enhancing coordination and cooperation among local providers, improving data practices to better inform efforts aimed at boosting credentials-to-jobs alignment, investing in counseling and programmatic initiatives to enhance career pathways, and improving career preparation and transfer pathways to bachelor’s degree programs in fields without a direct occupational match.

Click here to read the full report.

—Nguyen DH Nguyen